Market Memos
Where To Look
Five places to look, sorted by the question you're actually asking.
Most resource lists are alphabetical, which is useless — you don't wake up wanting "a website beginning with C." You wake up wanting to know whether anyone is buying this thing, or whether the market is about to fall over. These pages are sorted that way.
First, a way to weigh anything you find
Every source in every page below is somebody telling you something. One question sorts all of them: what does it cost them to be wrong?
| Tier | What it is | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 | Money at risk, disclosure required by law. An officer buying with her own money; a fund crossing 5% and having to declare intent. | Highest. They pay for being wrong and file because they must. |
| Tier 2 | Behaviour, not opinion. Search volume, app downloads, job postings, review counts. | High and slow. Nobody in the data is discussing a stock, so nobody is trying to move one. |
| Tier 3 | People talking. Message boards, Reddit, X, Telegram. | Earliest and least verified. Also the only tier where someone is actively trying to influence you. |
Tier 3 finds it. Tier 1 or 2 confirms it. Never the reverse. A name that surfaces on a message board and then shows insider buying is interesting. A name with insider buying that you then go hunting for enthusiasm about is you talking yourself into something.
The five pages
Money Flows
Is anyone with better information than me actually buying this?
Filed transactions, not opinions — insider purchases, activist stakes, congressional trades, institutional holdings, and management changes. All of it public, most of it free, and it differs mainly in how stale it is when you see it. An insider buy reaches you in two business days. A 13F can be four months old. That difference decides what each one can be used for, and it's the first thing on the page.
Sentiment Reads
Has anyone started paying attention to this company yet?
Search interest, product demand, message boards and the long-form writers. The earliest signal available and the easiest to be fooled by, so the page spends as much time on how people get fleeced here as on where to look.
Biotech Catalysts
What is scheduled to happen to this company, and when?
Biotech breaks every rule on the other pages. No product, no revenue, no customers — nothing to search for and no demand to measure. What it has instead is a public calendar of dated events, plus a trial registry that records changes nobody announces. It also has a financing cycle that turns correct theses into losing positions, which gets its own section.
Macro Signals
What kind of market is this?
Breadth, volatility, the economic calendar, valuation and the house views from the big research shops. None of it tells you anything about a single stock. All of it tells you whether now is a moment to be pressing or a moment to be smaller, which is usually the more valuable of the two.
Trading Tools
What do I actually run this on?
Screeners, options modelling, charting references, education, and the paid databases that turn out to be free with a library card.
And one that isn't a source at all
The Ten-Bagger Arithmetic is the reason any of this matters: where a large move actually comes from, why a company can grow every year and still lose you most of your money, and why the exit is most of the job rather than the boring half of it.
If you read one page here, read that one.
