Tuesday, October 25, 2016

SPX does a head fake

What started out impressively bullish overnight, got nasty into the open, then nudged itself back to break even, then fell and bounced around to finish near its lows around 2143.

I added a regular size SPX put spread for November 9th at the 2060/2050 level for 85 cents, right at the close. As long as the market stays above 2120, this spread will die quick. However, with the election coming anything could happen.

The $TRIN was up above 1.24 and really piled on the gains in the last hour of trade. As I mentioned yesterday, Visa was weak after its earnings announcement. GM botched its forecast for the future also, and it went down 4.5%. Oil also fell. 9 of the 11 main sector ETFs were negative today, but the damage to the SPX was minimal really.

After hours AAPL said some scary things (I suppose) as it traded lower by about 2.5%. This has put some weight on the futures already, and so tomorrow's opening could be soft.

Volatility traded higher today, but not significantly. The volatility term structure remains bullish. The SKEW traded slightly lower, and is in a good place to trade on both the bearish and bullish side of the market.

We need to watch our little Iron Condor at 2150/2160 X 2130/2120 carefully as it expires on Friday. If the lower end comes under pressure tomorrow, I will move to out or just close it. The bear calls brought in a lot of premium ($4.35), so that is important to collect if we can.