Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Fed only adds to the furvor

Today's market was up nicely before the Fed's notes were released. After that, they just flew higher. The SPX is now up substantially this week, and again the 3% standard move comes into play. The rest of this week should be flat, or consolidating slightly. Some jobs numbers are out right before the open, so that will set the tone. I will watch the Leading Indicators number however, because last month it came in negative and this month is expected to be a whopping +6%. If that misses, it would be difficult for strong gains.

I took off the 2015/2005 bull put spread for 35 cents in the morning, logging a gain of $2.90 since last Friday. With the unpredictability of the Fed's notes release and the substantial immediate move, I could not get into another bullish play.

I will look for a wide Iron Condor in the weekly options to capture the expected drift sideways through Friday's expiration after the morning news.

The VIX spike trigger was set off today also, as the VIX closed below 16.85! This is a great signal usually meaning we can expect 20 days of bullish markets. If we respect that move, any consolidation during the next few days will be great entry for Thanksgiving Day bullish season that starts on Wednesday next week.