Wednesday, February 3, 2016

1872 Retest, TLT set up

Today the SPX followed through on yesterdays negativity, even though crude oil went higher almost from the start of the trading day. Its worthy noting that Crude Oil is now finding a support level around $29.50. Today's 9% move from yesterday's close, really pushed the oil stocks hoigher in the SPX.



SPX has some support around 1870 now also. This is the area where the market closed last Thursday, before the BOJ interest rate announcement.

 

All these areas are now becoming clear support, and if they are broken, then very sharp declines can be expected. However, if they hold, the market can essential put together some form of relief rally from the steep declines in January.

The SKEW came in around 122 today. Again, this gives a bullish tilt to the market. All in all, the market has some resilience, but not much strength.

On a side topic, I want to take a quick look at TLT - the twenty year bond ETF. This is showing a set up for a bearish trade. Yesterday, TLT closed above its 2 standard deviation 20 day Bollinger Band. Today, it closed back below that band with a large shooting star candlestick pattern. Also, the stochastics have been extremely bullish for an extended period already, which in the past has led to decline. Likewise, the RSI has reached the overbought area, which it doesn't hold for long.



This set up could lead to reversal back to the 125 area very easily, with a further target down to 121. If TLT does fall, we may have more bullishness in the stock market.