Saturday, May 12, 2018

Earnings Trade on Agilient

Within a few days of my last post, SPX retested it March lows and has since again rebounded. Many indicators are looking much more positive since the rally has led to 7 stright days of positive gains. This is usually a sign further bullishness is ahead, although an immediate pause here can be expected.

 

DFEN fell apart several days after that last post and has since rebounded off the bottom line of its linear regression channel.



Earnings season is wrapping up. As of May 6th, 81% of the S&P500 companies have released Q1 earnings. So far, the blended earnings growth rate stands at +24.2%, and sales growth at +8.5%, which is excellent. However, the price reaction to many good earning reports started off very weak this time around, only to rebound recently. GOOG is a good example of this earnings seasons price reactions. The stock was down 5% after posting good earnings (EPS of $9.93 vs estimated $9.21) only to recover those losses completely within two weeks. 


Agilient Technologies (A) is posting earnings after market hours on Monday. Market Makers are pricing in just less than a $4 move on the stock. A May/June calendar spread is giving a it more room than that to the upside, showing that traders are bullishly biased on this stock. The calendar trader is offering a 3:1 reward to risk ratio, which is really nice. 


Graphing the breakeven points on this trade shows that the trade would only show losses after earnings if A trades below the recent level of support or makes an immediate all-time new high.

 

If this trade does give problems, we can adjust with a roll out to a June/July spread.