Tuesday, November 15, 2016

NDX leads, but RUT does not fall

Today was a generally bullish day, with the NDX up 1.3% and closing just off its highs. The RUT landed its 8th up day in a row, with a small hanging man candle pattern. I suspect this could lead to at least a short-term halt of the massive bullish move in this index. Also both lines on the stochastics are at their max value - a rare moment - and the RSI line has extended into the overbought zone. With this in mind, I placed a bear call spread on the RUT (details below).


The SPX moved to 2180 today, mostly after trading sideways in the morning. It closed at its highs. All this is bullish after three days of sideways action.

I mentioned before that the P/C ratios were a bit stubborn in changing to a more bullish stance. Well, today that changed. All are in line with new bullishness. the SKEW fell below 120 today, which again is more bullish. VXST is below 11. This has been an area from which it usually rallies, but it can also just float around at these levels while the market drifts higher.

I had to add a few trades today as the market is coming into a favorable range for our previous trades. We have sold various put spreads over the last few days, and those are all just about worthless now (creating maximum gains). Also, I removed the large sized bear call spread on the SPX on Friday, so we could take advantage of this bullishness.

With the RUT up 8 days in a row, I figured its time to put a bear call spread on it for a few days. I sold the 1320/1330 call spread expiring Nov30 for $3.15.

I still have the NDX 4720/4710 put spread on that expires Nov17. With the big move in the NDX today, that spread is now worth about $1.70 - down from the $2.80 at the time it was rolled. This spread brought in a total of $2.12 over two additional roles, so I really would like to close it this week. To counter any potential weakness in the NDX, I sold a 4810/4825 call spread expiring also on Nov17 for a credit of $2.50.

So, in summary, I added RUT and NDX bear call spreads to the portfolio.