Tuesday, November 1, 2016

VIX Spikes and market sits on support

What happened today was not supposed to happen. We had all the signals for a bounce, yet we got a nasty breakdown. Now the SPX sits right on support after creating a long tail below it. MarketForecast rose out of the lower reversal zone, and the Stochastics seem to be starting to curl up. Will we get a rally tomorrow, now after six days of being down?


Without any doubt this time, VIX spiked today. It was up 3 points intraday at one point, but it fell from its highs by the days end. If the VIX closes below 17.43, we will have a VIX buy signal on the SPX.


The NDX fell today by 0.75% - but it also was down much further with less than 1 hour to trade. Our NDX puts are still about 1% lower than current prices.

Both the SPX and the NDX came close to touching their 4 standard deviation 20 period Bollinger Bands today. There is not much room to the downside before those get hit.

I added some call spreads on in the morning mainly to make Iron Condors our of our bull put spreads. The first was a SPX Nov4 2130/2140 for $2.85. This makes a butterfly with the 2130/2120 put spreads due to expire the same day. The second was a SPX Nov2 2125/2135 for $1.80 to complement the 2100/2090 put spread expiring tomorrow. Finally, I added a NDX Nov3 4820/4830 bear call spread for a credit of $2.00.

At the same time I moved the NDX Nov3 4720/4710 put spread out to Nov10 for a credit of $0.50. I want to take this off  before the election of course.

All in all, it was a stressful bad day for our trades as we were all in put spreads as we started the day. Everything now depends on if we can hold support and get a bounce in the next couple days. After all, this is supposed to be a bullish period!